Nextearthquake.com

the don 61 - are you still following this site! Nextearthquake.com!

I have been following it for months and last few days it appears to have been taken down.

Any ideas why!

fronta1, Apr 13, 12:45 pm

Will be back in May in a condensed form apparantly. $$$ issues.

pugswal, Apr 13, 1:17 pm

Could I please have the link , the one below does not seem to work thanks

iwattsy, Apr 13, 2:12 pm


Thanks pugswal, they may need to run advertising to keep it going!

fronta1, Apr 13, 3:41 pm

Unbelievable.

linmc, Sep 30, 12:50 pm

looking forward to it

anjaok, Sep 30, 12:53 pm

Shenanigans.

smoth_007, Sep 30, 1:01 pm

Oh dear. Another idiot who thinks the moon has something to do with quakes. Good to see some people never learn.

cantycarvalet, Sep 30, 1:10 pm

So let me get this straight:

They are predicting an earthquake between 2 complete magnitudes in an area that covers a 1000km radius over a period of 6 days in a known seismically active area!

Well, if they get that right they MUST be experts.

samargh, Sep 30, 1:14 pm

I had been keeping an eye on that site. the variables are far too big, IMO.Like the radius, the dates, etc.Heck, even a monkey could predict that.

This is the "result" from 19-21 September. lol

New Zealand
"Northern Region" within ??400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand including Nelson region and North tip of South Island
Prediction - M4.2-M6.2
expected about Sept 23+/-3 days
Result - M4.3 (83% accuracy)16th September 2011, 10 km W of Porirua, 20 km NNW of Wellington in Cook Strait
forecast 21 days ahead

Just as an example. LOL.Taken from URL:
http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm#longterm

cutex01, Sep 30, 1:24 pm

I think they need a maths lesson.

samargh, Sep 30, 1:29 pm

And quite possibly a lesson in Geography too, by the looks of it. that "within 400km of Taupo" pretty much covers the entire island.

I see they now cover the south island with two "zones".

cutex01, Sep 30, 1:32 pm

Then why does it say "Earthquake predictions" throughout the site! ;o)

They sure don't predict EQs very well, anyway.And their numbers of accuracy isn't quite as. accurate. lol.

cutex01, Sep 30, 3:15 pm

PMSL, nice way to delete your post, the_don. ;o)

cutex01, Sep 30, 3:16 pm

Well, that's just as useless as tits on a bull then. LOL.

cutex01, Sep 30, 3:19 pm

There last posting said we were going to get a 7 well it didn't happen so I wouldn't read much into them.

tommydog, Sep 30, 3:43 pm

USA is only a day behind us - so that doesn't even go near to covering their creative accounting.

samargh, Sep 30, 4:51 pm

*817 predictions on nextearthquake.com (that have an outcome as recorded on the site) from 1 Mar 2010 - 3 Mar 2011
374 (45.78%) hits within the 7 day forecast date range (+/- 3 days)
443 (54.22%) outside the 7 day forecast date range (+/- 3 days)

*A comment from the owner of nextearthquake.com
".but at the present time about 15% of earthquakes cannot be forecast."

Given that, 45.78% drops to 38.91% (45.78% of the 85% predictable earthquakes) ability to predict earthquakes within a given timeframe.

*It should be noted that the % column is in regard to MAGNITUDE ONLY. It DOES NOT take into consideration forecast date and forecast area.
eg. Forecast magnitude is 3.0 - 5.0.
-an observed quake of M3.0 = 75%
-an observed quake of M4.0 = 100%
-an observed quake of M5.0 = 80%

Given an M5.0 (80%) is 10x stronger than an M4.0 (100%) and releases 30x more energy, simply dividing the lower number by the higher number (4÷5) to get a percentage isnt accurate enough imo (though to be fair, the owner acknowledges this).

*As for the forecast area, a 500km radius = 785,398km²
Area (landmass) of NZ = 268,021km²

patxyz, Sep 30, 5:24 pm

The looney bin must be overflowing.some of them are escaping into the public!

speedwayfan1, Sep 30, 5:33 pm

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